Market Outlook MID for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but sligtly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped at Fib PR2 (61.8%) and has been hovering around 862 for a while. AdStoK is fairly strong, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 843 to 875, then 812 on the down side, for 906 on the up side.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but slightly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery has stalled short of the 150 level. AdStoK is strong, but Entropy has now turned negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is a negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 145 (maybe 143) to 150

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
Dominant time frame.
AdStoK is looking good but white line is already overbought, indicating a lack of momentum to go much higher. Entropy is also very much hesitant.

This narrow trading range is bound by:
Support: 781
Resistance: 788, then 797 although it seems it won't have enough steam to get there.

Daily:
Same trading range, with a weak negative bias.
The 800 then 812.5 key levels must be broken to see a clear direction emerging.
On the down side, 781, then 765... down to maybe 750.

Weekly:
Negative bias is getting stronger, but no panic just yet (the dominant time frame is the 60 mins chart right now).
RUT can very well bounce on the Daily support levels above.

All 3 Swings are down.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
Dominant time frame.
Upward bias is still there: SPY like all major indices, is trying to reach its key level before the Fed announcement.
Not sure whether it can make it to ~150 by Monday though.

Daily:
Upward bias is somewhat weaker here.

Weekly:
Nothing new... the trading range can almost equally be broken either way.

Note that all 3 Swings are down though, hence this may mean that the market is trying to reach a key level to then retrace significantly, in which case the target prices would be 143 then (137.50 - 139).

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
AdStoK is still looking good, while Entropy is weakening.
This causes NDX to be stuck in a narrow trading range around key pivot levels (1998 - 2000).
Nothing to expect in the short term: continuation of the same trading range with an upward bias for now.
Max retracement: 1981
Max breakout: 2025 - 2031

Daily:
Same analysis, with slightly stronger upward bias, subject to the current resistance level.
The upward potential is higher, maybe up to the July highs (could take just a couple of days after the Fed Announcement on Monday).

Weekly:
Take cues from lower time frames to assess which direction NDX will follow, i.e. breakout of current resistance to go higher.... or double top... ?

For the time being, all Swings are up.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 14th '07

Short description of the Swing indicator

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook MID for Sep 13th '07

Detecting market direction without the Swing indicator

The Swing indicator would certainly help, but let's first try and detect market directions by just interpreting at two of indicators: the HA modified PaintBar and the MM support/resistance levels.

These 2 indicators require no parameters, and do not back-adjust like our Swing indicator.