Market Outlook RUT for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: none
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up. Possible congestion.
The major 812.50 resistance level is still valid but the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) is now about completed with still some upward momentum in store. RUT's behaviour around this key level is crucial to forthcoming direction (will this resistance be broken today?).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2078 - 2080.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK is fairly bullish but overbought, and Entropy is picking up a little again. The major resistance level is however now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range, or even a turnaround in the next couple of days. Key level remains 153.50

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up
The major 812.50 resistance level is still there and the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) seems to stall before completion (lines crossing). Entropy is also peaking. Consequently, probable congestion to mild upward bias ahead. 812 remains the key level for RUT's forthcoming direction.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK is showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156. One must just check for possible weakening of Entropy, and the major resistance level is now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP.
Same as yesterday, NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2076 - 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up
The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and Stronger support has been found as anticipated (MM+Fib), and we can now see a recovery coming ("U" shape pattern), at least until 812.50 is tested again. Possible pause half-way at 805.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but also bumpy or wavy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
The significance level is lower on this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP
The 151.50 level seems to hold, and AdStoK is now showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156.
The Swing indicator should turn around soon, but one should not anticipate any strong up move in the short term.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, but not to worry at least until AdStoK line cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: mildly UP to UP, depending on behaviour on resistance level.
NDX is certainly bullish but the 60mins chart is no longer the dominant chart (possible divergence) and Entropy is not very strong.
NDX should carry on going up, but it will have to pass strong resistance levels, at the moment 8 points apart, the next one being at 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. (Possible divergence then?) This is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now. One can only anticipate more difficulty reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly!
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly Down, til support is found
The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and RUT has now retraced a bit. Support must now be found either now at 805 or 797-799 (or -1%) which would provide a stronger foundation to go higher.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but the pattern while getting clearer is not the easiest to read. The significance level is low at this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, possible congestion.
NDX started the day quite bullish to a Fib level (lower time frame) but the 2062 key level held, then NDX retraced a bit.
It should now remain in the higher part of the same 2030 - 2060 trading range.
Strange enough, the Swing indicator is still Down, indicating a possible congestion.

Daily: neutral to UP
AdStoK remains bullish and Entropy has picked up steam again. While there can be some hesitation when testing new highs, there is no indication of any retracement going forward.

Weekly: UP ?
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. Possible divergence then? One could perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but this is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til bounce on support
Same as yesterday: support must be found either now on 151.50 or lower 150 (i.e. -1%). There is still some negative bias, and 150 is a stronger Fib level.
There is no indication SPY will then go lower. A new Fib pattern may form to give a 156 target.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
Same as yesterday: AdStoK is certainly bullish although also slighlty overbought. The AdStoK pattern is fairly clear, until the Green Line joins the White Line at least. With some weakening in the white line as well as Entropy, SPY may crawl to 153.50. It should test highs later on.
Likely range: 150 to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has turned UP and the chart certainly looks more bullish, but one has to first see what will happen when July highs are truly tested...