Market Outlook RUT for Nov 1st '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily.

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

Swings are UP again, indicating we are close to a key level.

60mins: Up, but strong resistance level is close.

MTFS and Entropy are undecided with a remaining upward bias. A clearer pattern may emerge once we have tested a resistance level and MTFS lines finally regroup. For the time being, MM resistance level is 828, the next ones being about 15 points apart.

Daily: Congestion with upward bias - trading range.

The daily chart still points downward despite support found recently on 789. Watch for a Fib pattern forming either way, but there is a little bit more of a down bias right now. Until then, we can assume a trading range [797-828] within a larger one [781-855].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 1st '07

Dominant TF: 60mins and low intraday time frames (Daily not far behind still)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

Note: Swings have turned UP yet again on both 60mins and daily charts, indicating a possible key level around current prices.

60mins: congestion to up.

The MTFS pattern is unclear, with some indication of congestion with an upward bias. As we we are seemingly close to a key level, we'll have to watch for SPY's behaviour around the next strong resistance level which is now about 156.Entropy could pick up, but it still looks like a slow down could happen once the key target is reached.

Daily: mildly up but check levels carefully.

The Fed announcement did not provide any significant information: the daily chart still points slightly downward but also acknowledges the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. It is safe to say that it should remain in the 150 to 156 trading range, but we'll have to follow Fib and MM levels very carefully as a new pattern should emerge shortly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 1st '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: up until resistance is tested.

60mins: Up, but strong resistance is near.

Wild swings yesterday after the rate cut, yet their amplitude was not exceptional if we consider the volatility we've had.My comment from yesterday could not be more valid: "No visible retracement but the market has been very volatile, and may be looking for a slight lower support to bounce higher (2203?)."The current close at 2238 is actually a stall level and a strong resistance in lower time frames, but at the same time energy came late in the market, and should take at least a few bars to dissipate. We are therefore likely to see a continuation of momentum until 2250.

Daily: Up, but expecting a slow down approaching strong resistance level.

NDX is overbought, and yet each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding well, and will most probably reach 2250 now. Watch lower time frames maybe taking the lead though.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 31st '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

60mins: congestion to mildly down.

After reaching a Fib PR2 on the up side, we are likely to go back to 812 which is also a Fib + MM level on the down side now. RUT is a little directionless ahead of the Fed announcement, but we have a negative bias so long.

Daily: Congestion - trading range.

the daily chart still points downward despite support found recently on 789. Watch for a Fib pattern forming either way, but there is a little bit more of a down bias right now. Until then, we can assume a trading range [797-828] within a larger one [781-855].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 31st '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames (60mins catching up)

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

Note: Swings have turned down on both 60mins and daily charts, indicating a possible key level around current prices.

60mins: congestion to down.

We could not quite gauge what would happen when SPY would hit 154.15, but in hindsight this slowdown looked normal (Fib PR2).MTFS looks congested but Entropy certainly points down, so we again have to wait a little until a clearer pattern forms. It can still be a return to highs around 157 or a test of recent lows at 149.

Daily: Congestion to mildly up but check levels carefully.

As said yesterday the daily chart still points a little downward but also seems to have acknowledged the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. It is safe to say that it should remain in the 150 to 156 trading range, but we'll have to follow Fib and MM levels very carefully as a new pattern should emerge shortly (Fed announcement...)

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 31st '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion.
Note: Virually no change from yesterday.NDX is still hovering around stall level, ahead of Fed rate announcement.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.No significant change.

There has been some profit taking on 2218 which is a strong resistance level in lower time frames, indicating the stall level is definitely in place. 2250 is still the target but certainly harder to reach.The market remains bullish and even if Entropy has slowed down, the target remains in sight.No visible retracement but the market has been very volatile, and may be looking for a slight lower support to bounce higher (2203?).

Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.

Same situation:NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 30th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to mildly down.
Again, very strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment. No real change from yesterday.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
The high volatility environment makes it sometimes difficult to gauge the amplitude of movements if direction and targets are analysed correctly. As anticipated, RUT is aiming at 828 (stronger MM + Fib), now that 812 is passed. MTFS and Entropy are looking good, yet this pattern is not indicative of a strong bull move.

Daily: Congestion - trading range.
Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised as we seem to have confirmation of a support. Until a new pattern forms clearly, we can assume a trading range [797-828] within a larger one [781-855].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias.We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 30th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames (60mins catching up)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: Probably up, but check levels and new pattern forming.
Note: No significant change from yesterday.

60mins: mildly up.
SPY reached 153 as expected, and still has some upward potential, so one could well get back to 156. 154.15 is the next Fib level, which should be passed if we consider the strong Entropy and the positive MTFS.

Daily: Congestion to mildly up but check levels carefully.

As said yesterday the daily chart still points a little downward but also seems to have acknowledged the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. It is safe to say that it should remain in the 150 to 156 trading range, but we'll have to follow Fib and MM levels very carefully as a new pattern should emerge shortly (Fed announcement...)

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 30th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion.

Note: Virually no change from yesterday.

NDX is still hovering around stall level, ahead of Fed rate announcement.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.

Same situation: The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. We reached the high end of that range, which is also bumping on 'stall' level. Since there is still an upward bias, we'll have to watch this level carefully. If this level is passed, NDX will obviously aim for 2250.Note that the MTFS pattern isn't clear, with the white line below the other lines and not even trying to catch up. Entropy is too high to see NDX peaking yet, but we'll have to watch its behaviour carefully (Fed??).

Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.

Same situation:NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding very well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight until it peaks.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, very strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.

The high volatility environment makes it sometimes difficult to gauge the amplitude of movements if direction and targets are analysed correctly. As anticipated, RUT is aiming at 828 (stronger MM + Fib), now that 812 is passed. MTFS and Entropy are looking good, yet this pattern is not indicative of a strong bull move.

Daily: Congestion to down.

Despite Friday's strong up move, there is no change in our analysis: Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias. Support on Fib and MM levels (cf chart) seems to hold though, so one must follow the formation of a Fib pattern accordingly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. The bar has turned red.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion.

Note: Swings are back UP, but this indicates we are close to a key level. Thursday's Down indication could very well be a warning, as the Swing indicator is very reactive. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy, yet one should avoid any wishful thinking as it is not visible on the charts just yet.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.

The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. We reached the high end of that range, which is also bumping on 'stall' level. Since there is still an upward bias, we'll have to watch this level carefully. If this level is passed, NDX will obviously aim for 2250.
Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding very well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight until it peaks.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: UP-DN-UP

Market direction: Probably up if support is confirmed.
60mins: up.

SPY reached 153 as expected, and still has some upward potential, so one could well get back to 156. 154.15 is the next Fib level, which should be passed if we consider the strong Entropy and the positive MTFS.

Daily: Congestion to down. Check levels carefully.

Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward but also seems to acknowledge the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. There is therefore no reason yet to believe it will go much higher.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level.

Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.