Market Outlook RUT for Nov 6th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily.

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: mildly down, looking for support.

60mins: congestion to down.

MTFS and Entropy indicate a possible bottom, but there is still some negative entropy to dissipate in a narrow trading range. RUT may also try to look lower for a stronger support.

Daily: down but support level on 791 is so far holding.

We seem to have a Fib pattern forming, but 791 may not hold very long as MTFS and Entropy look more and more bearish now. One could therefore see RUT going lower to 781 (Fib + MM level).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down

Entropy and MTFS indicate continuation of this situation of congestion with a slight downward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 6th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

Like NDX, SPY has closed on a nice round number. Difficulty is that at this point in time, we have no clear indication of direction going forward.

60mins: undetermined.
MTFS is still stitting beareish on a very strong Fib + MM support. With a high significance level, the recovery potential is minimum at best yet Entropy seems to have bottomed. Forthcoming direction is impossible to determined as it can go either way from this key 150 level.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.
Significance level is slowly coming down, indicating we'll have to pay more attention to lower time frames.150 is obviously a difficult level to pass, but we certainly have a negative bias, so SPY may look for a stronger support (Fib?). For the time being, MTFS is not very bearish, hence the lower part of the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a slight upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.With such a low significance level, one should rather take cues from lower time frames.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 6th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily

Swings: DN-UP-UP

Market direction: still mildly up.

Yesterday's Close is a nice round number, yet there is a lot of indecision in the air.

60mins: Mildly down, congestion.

We've been used to wild swings, so yesterday was calm in comparison. MTFS and Entropy are both indicative of congestion and the 2188 MM level seems to hold. It may provide some strength later on to reach 2250 (potential Fib pattern). It is however far too early now for such scenario.

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.

Apart the presence of a yellow bar, nothing much has changed, so NDX should creep up to previous highs, albeit considerably slower in comparison to what we've seen in the last couple of months. The rise may stall, but certainly no strong retracement in sight.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is still looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops. A peak in Entropy will also be an alert of a change in dynamics.

Blog Update - Nov 4th '07

1) This blog will be open to all visitors for the next 2 weeks.
After that, access will again be restricted to registered users.

2) Most of the technical side has now been moved to the other ts-trading-technique blog. Users of the TradeStation toolset can send comments or questions. A forum can eventually be set up separately.

3) Please note that there may be an interruption from November 11th to 14th, as there may be no internet readily available where i am going.
I'll confirm later on this week.

Thanks for your interest in this trading technique.

bv

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily.

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: mildly down, looking for support.

Again, strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.Swings are DN again, indicating we are hovering around a key level.

60mins: congestion to down.

MTFS and Entropy indicate a possible bottom, but there is still some negative entropy to dissipate in a narrow trading range. RUT may also try to look for a stronger support a little lower.

Daily: Congestion with downward bias - trading range.

We seem to have a Fib pattern forming, but 791 could hold as MTFS is congested with a downward bias. Entropy is however pointing down, so one could see RUT going lower to 781 (Fib + MM level).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: Congestion with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.

MTFS lines have joined on strong Fib + MM support. Entropy seems to have bottomed but is very low, and the MTFS green line is bearish indicating current recovery may be short-lived. Since the 150 support level is quite strong, congestion is likely.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.

There seems to be a Fib expansion pattern forming, but the MTFS is not very bearish, hence the lower part of the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily

Swings: DN-UP-UP

Market direction: still mildly up.

The week ended on a quiet note, and little changed from previous day's snapshots..

60mins: Mildly up, congestion.

As expected, we've had a bounce around 2190. MTFS is in an incomplete V shape pattern indicative of a possible upward bias. The green line has dropped from latest highs. This limits the upward potential in the short term, to ~2220 first.

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.

Apart the presence of a yellow bar, nothing much has changed, so NDX should creep up to previous highs, albeit considerably slower in comparison to what we've seen in the last couple of months. The rise may stall, but certainly no strong retracement in sight.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily (15 and 30mins are leading).

Swings: DN-DN-DN

Market direction: mildly down to down.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: Down, looking for support, 797, 781, then...

Resistance at 828, also stall level at lower time frames proved strong enough to halt the bull run. All patterns are now much clearer, and point definitely lower. However, one should not panic yet, and check levels carefully. 797 may hold although it is unlikely. Fib target is 791.

Daily: Congestion with upward bias - trading range.

Yesterday's comments were pretty valid, with however a clearer downward bias. The trading range is: [797-828] within a larger one [781-843].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: looking for support, around 150 first.

The MTFS pattern is now clearer, and should develop until lines join again. It may be lower than 150, but it is not quite visible yet.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.

There seems to be a Fib expansion pattern forming, but the MTFS is not very bearish, hence the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily

Swings: DN-UP-UP

Market direction: still mildly up.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: Down until support is found around 2190 first.

As mentioned yesterday, when there are wild swings particularly after a Fed announcement, lower time frames take the lead, and had a stall level at 2238 which proved quite strong.Profit taking is perfectly in order, and we now have to check for support. MTFS is slightly bearish so there is a chance it goes lower than 2190. No Panic though, as NDX may just gather more strength to reach 2250 later on (possible Fib development).

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.

This one-day correction is certainly not alarming yet. There is no indication of a change in trend.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 1st '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily.

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

Swings are UP again, indicating we are close to a key level.

60mins: Up, but strong resistance level is close.

MTFS and Entropy are undecided with a remaining upward bias. A clearer pattern may emerge once we have tested a resistance level and MTFS lines finally regroup. For the time being, MM resistance level is 828, the next ones being about 15 points apart.

Daily: Congestion with upward bias - trading range.

The daily chart still points downward despite support found recently on 789. Watch for a Fib pattern forming either way, but there is a little bit more of a down bias right now. Until then, we can assume a trading range [797-828] within a larger one [781-855].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 1st '07

Dominant TF: 60mins and low intraday time frames (Daily not far behind still)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

Note: Swings have turned UP yet again on both 60mins and daily charts, indicating a possible key level around current prices.

60mins: congestion to up.

The MTFS pattern is unclear, with some indication of congestion with an upward bias. As we we are seemingly close to a key level, we'll have to watch for SPY's behaviour around the next strong resistance level which is now about 156.Entropy could pick up, but it still looks like a slow down could happen once the key target is reached.

Daily: mildly up but check levels carefully.

The Fed announcement did not provide any significant information: the daily chart still points slightly downward but also acknowledges the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. It is safe to say that it should remain in the 150 to 156 trading range, but we'll have to follow Fib and MM levels very carefully as a new pattern should emerge shortly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.