AdMarkAn Update

AdMarkan will be on "holiday" mode until Monday August 25th.
There will be no interruption to weekly reports on this blog.

Weeky Outlook on ES 28th July to 1st Aug '08

Dominant TF: All three, with 60mins still a little behind
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from UP-UP-DN)
Market Direction(daily): long (lighten position) or flat to reenter later

Please read the ER2 post also. Both symbols are undoubtedly correlated yet each has its specificities.

ES went up to 1291 (for a 1295 target and now is retracing to 1250 and possibly below. So, all in all we've had a very easy week for ES.

60mins: will 1250 hold?
MTFS certainly follows price action therefore indicates a lower support. Entropy however is not so bearish hence ES may congest around 1250 or slightly lower without breaking that level (1246).
The Swing indicator announces a possible reversal with a first Fib target back to latest highs. We shall obviously wait for for the indicator to toggle up to confirm such scenario. This would be in line with some congestion at higher time frames.

Daily: slowdown, possible congestion
Again, following a ECO (early MTFS crossover) we knew there was little chance to see the recovery carrying through to higher levels and the 1st Fib retracement proved to be a profit taking level. IT would now make sense to test 1250 to be tested more firmly to go higher later on. We have however remain careful if this daily bar turns red. If we look at Entropy now, it seems that negative energy has almost dissipated. We don't however see ES bounce straight away but a Fib pattern may form later on this week.

Weekly: Caution must be exercised.
No change really... Bars are still red, MTFS still fairly bearish and Entropy has not bottomed yet! It is therefore far too early to rejoice so we'll remain cautious and check on support levels. We can still assume that 1230 will hold.
Next Fib level is way down at 1100 but we'll avoid falling into pessimism and wait for a possible yellow bar and maybe a pivot coming in the next few weeks. In any case, no recovery potential in sight in the short term.

Weeky Outlook on ER2 28th July to 1st Aug '08

Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60 mins falling
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from DN-UP-DN)
Market Direction(daily): flat or short
Options (RUT): no change in outlook for August, i.e. condor outside the 625-750 range.

On ER2, last weekly post mentioned tightening stops on the long which incidently reached target at 725 (Fib, just above SR).
Most would have tried a short which may take a little longer to materialise. We do notice that the 60mins is no longer a significant time frame, so we'll switch to a lower time frame to follow our trade while keeping in mind the daily and weekly contradictory charts.

EURUSD: No major change: there will only be a chance of significant recovery if the US$ passes 1.5625. Prices have been contained in a trading range.

60mins: congestion with lower bias
Prices left SR to reach 700 so to our surprise a little higher than Fib PR1. We have kept an eye on EURUSD which almost hit the target 1.5625 level (mentioned several times on previous posts), but we do notice correlation is not as clear as it used to be.
MTFS lines seem to ge their own way indicating possible congestion and Entropy is not helping either. We will therefore limit our analysis to pure price patterns and follow a likely Fib pattern to 700 and lower. No significant drop to expect, unless volatility increases on account of lower volumes.

Daily: peaking...
ER2 reached clear Fib targets (719 for the retracement, 725 for the previous Fib expansion), and looking now at taking a breather. The early MTFS crossover (ECO) and peaking Entropy should normally allow ER2 to retrace to the 790s. No indication at this stage that ER2 will retrace lower yet 688 is also a possible target.

Weekly: congestion to a little bearish
For the 2rd time now, MM stall level seems to have broken the fall, and one might think that a reversal is in the cards. Yet, MTFS and Entropy look if not bearish at least congestive so one should certainly not expect a strong rebound before the negative pressure is dissipated. Further to what was said last week, the last bounce looks like it was short-lived and last lows (stall level) or the Fib target around 625 can still be hit within a few weeks and without any significant exogenous shock to the market. One shall therefore remain fairly cautious as one should always be when Swings are in a DN-UP-DN configuration.

AdMarkAn Week 21-25 July 08

Last week was fairly classic and unsurprising with ES rising very close to our target then retracing back to major support.

For details, a copy of last week's AdMarkAn posts is now available on request.

Today's report will be posted shortly.

Weeky Outlook on ES 21st to 25th July '08

Dominant TF: All three, with 60mins still a little behind
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): going long

Please read the ER2 post also. Both symbols are undoubtedly correlated yet each has its specificities.

60mins: 1250 seems to hold yet...
We indeed saw the channel breakout as mentioned on the last weekly post, to see prices settle a little higher. Indeed lower intraday time frames showed clearer pattern and possible Fib target up to 1270. Swing is now UP and MTFS isn't looking too shabby with a pattern indicating some exhaustion in the short term but clearly some steam left in the green line. This is typical of a stall but can generally take prices higher. This stall is also visible in Entropy weakening fast. ES should therefore remain contained in a fairly narrow trading range.
More interesting maybe is how MM levels have evolved. 1250 is now clearly a pivot level, and despite the overall up move in the last week or so, SS is now significantly lower.
We shall therefore again take cues from lower time frames to check ES behaviour around pivot level as we might see some retracement at the end of the current congestion period.

Daily: Up bias
We already had an early MTFS crossover last week, so we anticipated a bottom, and even a bounce on Fib/MM support levels. We now have a more positive outlook with ablue bar, lines sloping upward, bottoming out entropy etc so ES should certainly be looking at going up possibly to Fib PR1 (38.2%). Now the only caveat is again the early crossover so one could either be long with a stop below 1230 or maybe try to find a better entry point anticipating a pullback still. Looking at the overall picture, i would tend to opt for the second scenario.

Weekly: Caution must be exercised.
Again we see that Fib target level here similar to the one on the 60mins chart. We last week mentioned a bit of fighting on those levels and despite a possible 1100 Fib target, a quick look at our symbols seemed to provide enough reassurance that current bottom would hold.
A week later, one can say that this scenario looks valid bt we're not out of the woodds just yet. We will remain cautious and above all refrain from turning bullish already. The Fib pattern is still there and MTFS still looks quite bearish. We will wait for at least a yellow bar above 1250 to confirm the fall is over. This means that despite positive signals in shorter time frames, there is still no strong recovery potential at this stage.

Weeky Outlook on ER2 21st to 25th July '08

Dominant TF: All three, shorter time frames leading
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): flat to long
Options (RUT): no change in outlook for August, i.e. condor outside the 625-750 range.

On ER2, last weekly post indicated exiting shorts but not going long just yet (following our time frames and market outlook). We indeed saw a bottom being confirmed and even some attempt to go higher. Looking at intraday time frames, some would understandably have gone long last week.
All in all, last post again didn't do too badly. What next now?

EURUSD: There will only be a chance of significant recovery if the US$ passes 1.5625, so fairly weak and directionless still. We'll obviously also keep an eye on oil prices and further consequences of the subprimes blunder.

60mins: no upward momentum but...
We indeed saw ER2 passing the MM pivot level briefly to hit a Fib target but there was not energy to carry prices much higher. Hitting 700 was even a bit of a stretch.
MTFS is pointing for a mild erosion and MM level turned to Strong Resistance.
There is still a vague chance that SR holds as support but this is unlikely. One would rather anticipate ER2 to find some support on a lower Fib retracement level. There is however no indication of a reversal (we don't even have a single red bar) so prices shall not reach recent lows again.

Daily: trying to move upward
Despite the early MTFS line crossover, we now have a positive outlook on ER2 with lines pointing upward. Entropy is also looking healthier now. One might have entered long last week from lower time frames (i however purposely only give a market outlook and no trading signals per se). Stops would be tightened now.

Weekly: congestion to a little bearish
For the 2rd time now, MM stall level seems to have broken the fall, and one might think that a reversal is in the cards. Yet, MTFS and Entropy look if not bearish at least congestive so one should certainly not expect a strong rebound before the negative pressure is dissipated. Furthermore, as all 3 time frames weigh equally now, the latest bounce may only be a reprieve and the Fib target around 625 can still be hit within a few weeks and without any significant exogenous shock to the market. One shall therefore remain fairly cautious as one should always be when Swings are in a DN-UP-DN configuration.

AdMarkAn Week 14-18 July 08

Here is a copy of this week's posts on AdMarkAn:

AdMarkAn Week 14-18 July 08

Monday's post will be posted shortly.

You will have noticed that this public blog now only publishes weekly snapshots.

Daily market snapshots are now posted on the new private Advanced Market Analysis blog (Contact me for subscription/access)


Happy trading to all...
And please don't forget my 2 cents of advice: there is also a life out there.

Weeky Outlook on ES 14th to 18th July '08

Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): profit taking from shorts

Please read the ER2 post also.

60mins: 1250 seems to hold
We have seen ES test the 2nd Fib target during the course of the day, thanks to jitters on FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC. The market would have otherwise settled on the 1st target close to MM support. One can see that 1250 is actually holding, but we have no assistance from our indicators (significance level is low at this time frame). We shall therefore like for ER2 either follow pure price patterns or switch to lower time frames for entry/exit points. The Swing indicator could toggle up during the course of the day, but we shall first focus on the current channel and a possible breakout on the upside.

Daily: Congestion. No rejoicing just yet.
MTFS lines are diverging indicating an attempt to break the fall. The early line crossover indicates a recovery attempt which has only one chance of materialising: the green line must start going up before the white line gives up. We shall therefore be careful still. Some will take profits on their shorts or portions thereof, but it is way too early to go long now. ES must now stay above 1250 for a while, and even test the level for support again to have any hope for a recovery.

Weekly: Caution must be exercised.
We have a Fib target level here similar to the one on the 60mins chart. We can anticipate further fighting on this level but the overall mood remains bearish. Obviously the next Fib target down is around 1100 which would be a disaster to an already battered market.
Looking at other symbols, it looks like market participants will try and keep ES above water for now. We will however remain very cautious as we have NO indication of any sort recovery just yet.

Weeky Outlook on ER2 14th to 18th July '08

Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): flat
Options (RUT): no change in outlook for August, i.e. condor outside the 625-750 range.

On ER2, last post was again correct, even if the day started lower. To be honest the jump to 1st Fib target would also suprise me if i hadn't had a short intraday chart open (as recommended also on Friday)

EURUSD: we'll keep an eye at EURUSD not breaking the current lows as this would bring further turmoil to the markets and obviously impact our outlook here.

60mins: congestion, erratic. Shorter time frame recommended.
Same advice as last Friday, i.e. not much to read from indicators at this time frame. This means that one shall either follow pure price patterns or switch to lower time frames for entry/exit points. Reaching 2nd Fib target level is quite possible.

Daily: congestion with upper bias at first.
MTFS lines are diverging indicating an attempt to break the fall. No recovery can succeed with a green line sloping down and crossover came too early. Having said that, ER2 could well reach the 60mins Fib target which is close to the MM pivot here. Conservative traders will have exited their shorts and won't go long just yet as there is still a lot of indecision here.

Weekly: a little bearish but no panic just yet
No change from last post. As mentioned previously, we are now seeing the development of a down Fib pattern aiming straight at MM support level (~625). Since the MTFS pattern is not overly bearish, the Fib pattern can still fail. We will therefore also look for a possible support level along the way i.e. somewhere between current stall level (656) and strong support level (625).

NOTICE

Today was the last day for my daily snapshots. I hope they proved valuable to you in your trading in the last 12 months or so. There is however always a realistic limit to what should be offered for free, particularly when it comes to market trading. Hence, from now on, only a weekly study on ER2 and ES will be posted on this public blog. A private blog (http://admarkan.blogspot.com) will now be the container for daily market outlooks and personalised market studies can be arranged on request.

Enjoy your holiday,

bv

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jul 11th 2008

cf. ER2 post below for guidance