Weekly Report on ES - Dec 22nd to 26th '08

ES and ER are certainly largely correlated hence it is always worth reading both reports (ER report just below). However information is sometimes clearer on either ES or ER. This time ES can indeed provide some clarification.

ES 60mins: ES bounced twice near 875 which is an important pivot level. Yet dynamics are slowly turning a little bearish so ES could certainly test it again, to possibly bounce again. One should give the downturn more credit and anticipate related effects on ER.

ES Daily: Here as well, indicators seem to show prices hovering relatively high waiting to fall to a support level where buyers would jump in again. Our support levels are 870, 840 and then 810. At this stage, we don't see prices falling that low though.

ES Weekly: Swing is up and Entropy has bottomed yet MTFS is not too bullish so one does not anticipate any significant take off, and after all one has already enjoyed a significant 25% recovery since recent lows, so a pause and some profit taking would be quite in order.

(posted 3AM Eastern)

Weekly Report on ER - Dec 22nd to 26th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins leading, with Daily dropping lately.
Swings: UP-UP-UP from UP-UP-UP (60mins swing is hesitant)
Market Direction(daily): cautiously long or taking profit.

Last week monday, we were long while we anticipated the energy exhaustion ahaead of the 500 level. A fairly easy week overall except we had to remain cautious ahead of triple witching. Now comes the festive season with lower volumes, a bit of position squaring writing off losses by Dec 31st, so we can expect again some volatility ahead.

EURUSD: last week, i really thought €/$ would calm down before marching higher, but we remained positioned long and quite amazed by the $ freefall. EURUSD finally pulled back on 1.47 almost exactly on MM SR level, so again our indicators do react well even if again volatility acts as a time compression. Everything happens a lot quicker these days. At this stage, we should see some slow down possibly around 1.37 (retracement stopped on stall level ~1.38), but the overall direction has now changed, and we shall either see a range shift i.e. same dynamics just shifted upwards due to rate cuts, or a continuation of the fall. We are for the time being waiting to check EURUSD behaviour on salient support/resistance levels before updating our scenario. Our short advice would be to sell the US$ following the 60mins charts as well as tick charts. Upward potential is however limited.
(Image posted)

ER 60mins: surprisingly little difference from last week. ER is still inches away from the 500 target, and finds it difficult to go higher. It is only a matter of time though even if there is still a possibility to see ER consolidating around 470. Here as well shorter time frames are recommended to possibly buy in dips (dominant trend is up).

ER Daily: upper bias weakening here too. Momentum trading should take ER to 500 and even maybe to PR1 around 520, but difficult at this stage to figure out whether we shall then see new energy coming from a breakout effect or another pullback. The latter scenario is preferred, hence caution must be exercised. Those who are still long can tighten their stops, otherwise it is probably too late to enter except on a stop entry above 500 (risky).

ER Weekly: With Entropy bottoming out, we now look at the MTFS pattern and realize that while it does show some recovery potential (+33% from recent lows), there very little chance to see ER going much higher. Logic would say selling would start on key MM or Fib level, as mentioned above on lower time frames. This is a time of uncertainty so buyers should look at buying on an aggressive limit price or wait for a consolidation and buy market later on.

Nothing wrong with staying on the sideline and enjoy a quiet festive season after such an eventful year...

(Posted 2.30 AM Eastern)

Euroller-Coaster

What did i say about profit taking zone on EURUSD...? OK, to be honest, volatility still surprises me and i did not anticipate it would retrace to Fib PR1 so quickly. Again and again, high volatility is like time compression, so one just needs to shift time frames and go with the flow...

EURUSD: Our chart seems to indicate some calming down today as with some conflicting forces now brewing. It is difficult to pick a direction for the day, however the oversold situation should push the US$ down. A shorter time frame is recommended. Longer term, the US$ will definitely weaken further.

ER: Yesterday's dip should not have any lasting effect on prices slowly rising to test the almighty 500-520 zone. We do have a slowdown in energy, but this could be understandable hesitation on triple witching day. We expect a clearer picture later on today although volumes could be turn a little lower ahead of the festive season.

ES: Similar scenario at first sight, if only one wouldn't see a more definite exhaustion in the short term. One might therefore test lows near 875 again where one could then possibly gather some strength.


Overall, we see little chance of a rally coming. On the contrary, we might just be heading toward some drifting til the end of the year. More details in the weekly report this weekend.

Good trading to all,
bv

(posted 1AM Eastern)

Lull before another storm ?

Sorry i couldn't make it yesterday but i had no connection available 39000 feet a.s.l.

Fantastic action on EURUSD, with a dollar in a near free fall after the rate cut. At least we all know it should be the last one... :) The effect on indices has been minor overall.

Let's see what's in store for today:

EURUSD: short term, stall level is now around the corner just above 1.45, but we have a stronger resistance level around 1.462 to 1.464. The daily MTFS shows that we are entering profit taking zone, so we'll watch carefully for a reversal on the 60mins chart or below to take profits or at least tighten our stops.

ER: 481-484 was a reasonable target area, where we could see some mild profit taking ahead of the 500-506 major target zone. The daily chart shows a pennant or rising triangle pattern* which is not a clear bullish signal in the short term. We still have substantial conflicting forces even if we will eventually reach the low 600s in a matter of weeks.

ES: similar story again. Our target levels here are low 920s which ES almost hit yesterday. It may get there today despite some uncertainty visible from the mild profit taking seen late in the day. Over the next few days, one could see a pullback (MTFS line separation on the daily chart) but we shall only keep that info at the back of our mind since the 60mins time frame dominates by far.

One shall keep in mind that we are approaching triple witching with a lot of position squaring before the festive season hence, stay aside, tighten stops, or move to lower intraday time frames and enjoy the ride...


Til tomorrow, have a great trading day :)




* http://ts-trading-technique.blogspot.com/2008/02/some-common-visual-patterns.html

(posted 2AM eastern)

US$ on sale...

We anticipate the Euro rally, but again to be honest volatility always amazes us and we didn't quite expect the breakout to take EURUSD to1.37 so quickly. We are long so we're not going to complain, but those who are short vega may be adversely affected.

EURUSD should retrace now that the target has been hit. We'll however wait for some confirmation in the early hours of the European trading day. We are in the meantime tightening stops or even closing our position.

ER: range bound unless one moves to times frames of 30 mins or lower. Bias seems very mildly up for the time being.

ES: same story.

In a nutshell, it looks like our indices are looking at their key target, but are too shy to try them (is that the Madoff scandal?). More exogenous factors may be needed, but one can in any case expect surprises ahead of triple witching day ending a crazy quarter. Once positions are squared off, one can anticipate a better visibility for the next couple of weeks.


NB: There will be no update for tomorrow Wed 17th.

(posted 2:30AM Eastern)

Weekly Report on ES - Dec 15th to 19th '08

Last week's report may have sounded confusing in a way as i clearly indicated a breakout situation while a pullback was also expected. Volatility indeed exacerbated swings on 60mins and lower time frames, and the retracement actually reached PR2 to the 840s even if i thought 875 could have held (it was a strong MM /Fib level).

ES 60mins: despite a fantastic recovery on Friday, our indicators show a possible exhaustion hence the forthcoming high should be lower than most recent ones, at least until new energy is added. We therefore anticipate a pause on the way to low 900s, possibly gathering strength on 875. The swing gradient also looks way too steep to be stable.

ES Daily: we could be tempted to discard the last red bar as it closed near bar friday's high. MTFS line separation is also generally indicative of a lack of underlying forces to carry prices much higher. The bias is however still up and one could see ES hover or even rise a little still. Having said that, a retracement will be necessary at some point this week.

ES Weekly: Entropy has now bottomed so we know prices are likely to recover even though in the usual seemingly chaotic environment. MTFS shows an early crossover, a blue bar and a recovering entropy could all lead to a scenario where price would head to 1000 (Fib + MM) by early January. We however don't anticipate that key level to be passed unless MTFS evolves into a more bullish pattern by then.

Weekly Report on ER - Dec 15th to 19th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins with other time frames not far behind.
Swings: UP-UP-UP from UP-UP-DN (please note a slight modification in swing display)
Market Direction(daily): staying long.
Options (RUT): put spread.

While our outlook proved certainly right, we have to admit that volatility played tricks on us again last week, thus confirming the need for daily raport updates, and positions adjusted accordingly.

EURUSD: last week's reports could not have been moe accurate on €/$. We advanced the move cautiously as the daily range could have held longer for another cycle. We are now on a short term resistance level which could slow down the current rise to ou 1.37 target. Profit taking is indeed expected down to the low 1.30s this week before marching higher. Having said that, the bias is still up so we'll wait for a confirmed downturn on the 60mins chart.

ER 60mins: quite volatile indeed with a dramatic bounce on Fib/MM on friday as expected. ER is now heading towards Fib expansion target in the vicinity of the MM stall level (~490). This is also a range high where prices could certainly pause.

ER Daily: Energy levels seem to be weakening ahead of 500 resistance level, here indicating again some hesitation. However the channel is confirmed broken so we can assume Fib PR1 will be hit this week. We shall however remain cautious about volatility spurt on coming triple witching day.

ER Weekly: Entropy has finally bottomed which is good news, however the MTFS pattern seems to indicate a difficult bumpy recovery even though last week ended on a blue bar. 500 and Fib PR1 ~530 seem close enough but those levels are unlikely to be passed in the short term.

Adrenaline rush...

What did i say yesterday !?!? i sometimes think my crystal ball is worth millions...
€/$ broke out quite strongly and rose about all day. Not a single red bar until 7PM !
A retracement, even if quite mild is now necessary to 1.32, or possibly to 1.3075
We can see that a provisional Fib Expansion pattern would take EURUSD to the highs mentioned recently. Let's wait for support for now though.

ER: we turned to lower time frames as it hovered almost directionless on the 1H chart. WE have now retraced to a strong support level around 440 (MM + Fib) where it could and even should bounce. I have told several times on this blog that we are not heading for a smooth recovery (weekly entropy has not even bottomed yet), so we'll stick to lower time frames or remain very cautious.

ES: similar story... I thought yesterday 875 would hold (MM + Fib) but the market decided to test Fib PR2 from which it could and probably will bounce back. We'll remain cautious until that support level is firmly tested (check MTFS pattern for confirmation)


Great trading to all and see you monday for the weekly report.


(posted 1:20 AM Eastern)

Where is the US$ going ... ?

Same easy ride, with €/$ now reaching its target around 1.305. This is the high of the daily range so some profit taking is possible. Again the change in mindset is now visible and a range breakout could lead to 1.37 in a matter of a couple of weeks. We need to check behaviour on this key resistance level. EURUSD could retrace to 1.2966 or right down to pivot level to 1.293 which looks like a much better support level to then take prices higher. At this point in time (12:30 AM) bias is still up.

A daily range of 17 points for ER almost looks like a calm day. We do see a mild upper bias, with prices hovering relatively high but could still go both ways. Maybe a good time to tighten stops.

Exact same scenario for ES where we now see some hesitation after retracing up to the Fib PR2 level . We maybe need now a pullback to 875 to then attack the high 900s. Overall the bias is still up so one should just hang on and safely move stops to just below 875.


--- QUICK UPDATE 12:45 AM ---
€/$ seems to be breaking out already

Two weeks to XMas ! :)

A little more calm, a little more visibility at last. To the point to wonder whether an update today is necessary.

EURUSD is still hovering near the high of its range and will eventually break out on the upside, maybe today, maybe within a few days. There isn't much energy right now, so a pullback to 1.275 is always possible, otherwise €/$ will just creep higher to high 1.31s then within a few weeks (days?) to 1.37

ES completed its Fib expansion pattern and is naturally pausing a little. However, despite lack of energy here as well, there is more and more indication of a testing of 1000 within a few days. Does that mean it will go higher still then ? Well... the market needs more vitamins then. Certainly not visible right now.

ER follows the same pattern and now has 500 in sight.
The bias is up anyway, so let's just sit back and wait until a target comes up automatically from our indicators (yes... getting a little lazy ahead of the festive season... )

Good trading day to all
bv

Christmas shopping...

Good market reading again yesterday with €/$ reaching our target (1.29395) then retracing a little. Same with ER2 which hit a high of 484.50. Can't do better than that... :)
ES also attempted a breakout and even passed 900 for a while.

So, what's in store for today ?

EURUSD is pausing on resistance level and could retrace a bit (Fib), yet the trend is now most probably up. After the initial pullback, we will wait for confirmation of a range breakout above yesterday's highs.

ER should also see some minor profit taking today which will provide good entry points. ER should test 500 within a couple of days (Fib target ~490, then ~515).

ES was inches away from stall level around 920 and is now gathering energy to reach the next 936 target. ES is certainly lining up to 1000 within a week or two.

( posted 12:30 AM - screenshots available on request )

Weekly Report on ES - Dec 8th to 12th '08

Something is brewing here... After another very volatile week, ES is attempting a recovery (breakout).

ES 60mins:
What an amazing recovery on Friday afternoon !!! Despite the 875 level which should normally be tested for support we do have some evidence of a potential runaway situation. It is a difficult environment and to be honest, I myself have been rather following 16K and 32K volume charts lately. Alternatively, a lower time frame is recommended. We will also make sure we take trades in the dominant trend given by a higher time frame.

Daily: breakout situation
We do see signs of a recovery in the MTFS yet the pattern is not indicative an easy ride up so we should see a pullback possibly on 875 key level to provide enough energy to takes prices higher then. For the time being, we have to pass recent highs inches away from 900. Should those highs be passed, we'll check Fib levels on the way to 1000, but we'll remain very cautious in this volatile environment.

Weekly: a blue bar !
Yes, like for ER, even if Entropy hasn't bottomed yet, even if MTFS is about stuck in oversold territory, even if Swing is desperately down... we have a blue bar ! It obviously doesn't mean much but we can get ready for a forthcoming turnaround. Oh well, we all know a swallow does not make a summer, but we might have a good week ahead of us.

Daily updates will be posted on this blog.

(posted 2:20 AM Eastern)