Market Update - Aug 20th '09

ES is back on the 1000 level after bouncing on trading range lows.
While this is a very strong resistance combined to Fib PR2 on the 60mins chart, the chances of range breakout are substantial.
One should not put the "cart before the bull" though. We note that the weekly chart offers a breakout level around 1015.

Note on EURUSD: rangy with a possible pivot down if 1.426 resists. Retracement would however be relatively limited (higher time frame)

( posted 6:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 19th '09

ES almost made it to 991 yesterday, but is now looking at retracing lower to the bottom of the trading range (~980) and problably lower still later on. The 980 level is a good test right now. Markets could shed another 3% within a week in case of a breakout.

Again, we have no indication of a reversal on longer time frames just yet, so this is only normal profit taking, as well as a normal period of hesitation on a key level (1000).

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 18th '09

ES found support on the 977 stall level, but we also notice the ~32 point price segment evoked so many times on these reports so real support should be found lower despite its endeavour to bounce now.

As mentioned before, 1000 remains a key level to sustain the bull run we've had for over a month or on the contrary to retrace substantially. 1000 is also a Fib Pr2 now on the 60mins chart.

We'll watch 991 first (Fib PR1) as a resistance now and again we don't see prices going higher right now.

Having said that, there is still a substantial upward potential once this profit taking session is over (down to Fib PR1 on Daily chart). TF indeed seems set on a course to 600 on the weekly chart.


( posted 8 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 17th to 21st '09

On Firday ES received a "shock" from a systemic point of view and apparently absorbed it pretty well.

Being indeed on a strong resistance, a market is generally more susceptible to bad news, while not necessarily derailing the on-going trend. In this particular instance, ES was halted around 1016 (we note the same 16 point wide price segment we've seem for a while), to fall almost to the bottom of the trading range (~990), where it found support and rebounded late in the day.

The question is therefore: was it a false alert or on the contrary the first tangible sign of exhaustion of the bull market after a very strong month of July.
MTFS on the 60mins chart could indicate a return to the lower part of the trading range, so we'll check the behaviour on 1000 then on 990. However while we can see a pivot on higher time frames, there is still a lot of residual buying pressure. We shall review our scenario as the week progresses particularly if our trading range breaks out on the down side.
Traders who have been long for a few weeks should consider tightening stops below 980.

The scenario is the same for TF. We'll be watching closely the 555 and 548 levels. Again, not much concern just yet.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 14th '09

Quick end-of-week update.
This week has indeed been overall contained in the same trading range with the same bullish bias. Chance of a breakout on the up side are substantial.
TF is also exactly on the resistance level we anticipated, and could still aim higher.

We'll review our scenario on the weekly report, but are considering moving our targets higher (1047 for ES, 590 for TF).

( posted 8:30 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 10th to 14th '09

ES reached the 2nd Fib target level on Friday, still within the resistance area given on previous reports (1000-1020).

We still do not see the buying pressuring abating much, hence while the 1000 level is still quite valid, we may see the level being tested as support. If 1000 doesn't hold, then profit taking could pick up some momentum, even though one cannot see it at present.

TF gives us a potential higher target in the mid 590s and the previous 562 resistance level has now been clearly broken (new res level is 578). One could therefore extrapolate a strong resistance level in the area (just another jump to the next 16-point price segment).

We do notice a mix of more hesitation inducing higher volatility in this underlying bullish trend.

Some traders may want to secure profit by moving their stop just below Thursday's lows (i.e. around 990).


NB: There won't be daily updates this week.

Market Update - Aug 7th '09

We have a confirmation of the pause on the salient 1000 level, however no indication of any signification retracement either. ES came down to the Fib PR1 level (38%) and could actually shed a few more points to find support o the mid 980s. Again it doesn't mean that ES will not rise again in the medium term as residual buying pressure is still there.

A data issue pending correction by TradeStation prevents any analysis of TF at this time.

NB: there will be no daily update next week.

( posted 8:10 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 6th '09

Prices are still hoevering the key 1000 level, and i'm afraid it is not possible to know right now whether it will break out on the up side or not. There is some potential indeed, and we could give it a slight bias, but retracement can certainly not be discarded either.

We also note that TF and ES are exactly in synch so neither can pull the other one in either direction...

Nota Bene: There will be a weekoy report this weekend but no daily update next week.

Market Update - Aug 4th '09

There we are. 1000.
What next now ???

There is still substantial buying pressure to dissipate. Prices should stay high today again, probably due to some residual momentum trading. TF could even breakout from the 562 resistance area and aim for the next Fib target near 600. A pause (or very minor retracement) is however likely in the short term.

( posted 8:15 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 3rd to 7th '09

ES has shown to be hesitant on month end, with increasing signs of some modes retracement ahead of the 1000 target. It is difficult to say whether 1000 will be hit shortly or hit at all, as a high of 994 falls within the margin of error.

For now there is still substantial resilience and profit taking looks limited. One cannot however discard some acceleration either way as the week progresses. Tick charts (max 1 day visibility) point for some retracement, and we'll watch the key 984 and 992 pivot levels which could send prices to 1000 or not (price segments are roughly 8 points apart). A continuation of the same hesitation and consequently of the same trading range in the 980s is also possible.

Note that TF is also hovering around target area (550 to 560) with a next target around 600-625. However a stall or minor retracement is also expected here.


NB: there may be only one or two reports this week unless market action warrants regular updates of course.

( posted 9:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 31st '09

The market stopped a little short again with some profit taking on 994. Selling actually started on the TF resistance level (hence always a good reason to watch several correlated instruments). ES a Fib target on 996, and the so much expected 1000 level.

At the bottom of the current trading range, 984 seems to be a strong support level at the moment, so we should see more hesitation today ahead of key target levels, and possibly adjust positions accordingly. It is not possible to anticipate any significant retracement with any accuracy right now.
On the downside, we'll watch for a breakout of the 984 level (next strong support level is in the high 960s). We however do favour continuation of the current trading range ([984-1000] for the time being.

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 30th '09

We've seen the market pausing and even resting a bit on the 968 level yesterday. It is now going to test 984 again but while 1000 is now really just a stone's throw away, we have increasing indications of a market stall. Note however that we cannot evaluate how far our leading indicators are looking so the market may still try and hit 1000 before stalling and maybe retracing. The overall picture remains quite bullish at the moment.

TF is also on a strong resistance (next target would be in the 600 area). Such breakout would equate to another jump of nearly 10%, which is possible but unlikely at the moment.

( posted 7:25 AM UK )