Market Update - Aug 26th '09

ES seems to have trouble passing 1032 and buyers might just give up and let sellers lead the game at least for now. We'll check 1024 for a possible drop to the Fib levels around 1013 and then 1000.
Again (cf. previous posts), this is only normal hesitation and the longer term trend remains fairly bullish (same targets).
Same story for TF.

EURUSD: our support area mentioned yesterday is still valid. Prices could land there for a while and then bounce back. One might not get to 1.4646 straight away, but 1.4373 then 1.4404 are plausible targets.

( posted 6:20 AM UK )

NB: There will probably be no post on Friday morning.

Market Update - Aug 25th '09

ES stalled on the resistance level around 1032 as anticipated, then retraced slightly to the minor 16% Fib level (~1020). Further erosion is possible but should only be visible in intraday time frames. Longer time frames are also losing steam but remain marginally bullish.

We do note Fib levels around 1013 then 1000 again.

Same story for TF, with Fib levels around 571 and 561 (minor Fib at 577), and here again, current erosion is nothing but normal and should not turn into a sizable retracement either.

EURUSD: No change in outlook just yet. We are watching for a bounce on 1.426 to 1.428 to aim back at range highs around 1.44 (mid term). If our support breaks, we'll review our position to probably go short for a 1.398 then 1.369 targets.

( posted 6:50 AM UK )

NB: there will be no post on Friday

Weekly Report - Aug 24th to 28th '09

Not only we got the expected breakout, but we almost got a move of a full price segment (32 points) in a single day. Prices indeed almost reached 1030 and could still creep higher later on after first settling on these new resistance levels. No retracement in sight.

TF follows a similar path with a 595 target now. Levels are not exactly in sync with ES but this should not significantly affect the overall correlation.

Note that while we might see a continuation of this bull run for a while (maybe over a month), this recovery is still relatively fragile and one could see some serious retracement in 4th quarter (Entropy is way too high)


A quick word on EURUSD: still bullish while on target around 1.43
It could try and aim higher still. We shall try to calculate our targets more accurately next week, but let's say already that we have a looong term objective price around 1.464

( Posted Sat 7:30 AM UK )

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Market Update - Aug 21st '09

Not much happening on our index futures yesterday with the same hesitation around trading range highs.
Chances of breakout are quite significant so any good news could trigger the next round of buying. We would then check our 32 point wide price segments for targets.
TF is in the same situation, so while we may see a continuation of the same congestion, it is also likely to aim higher even if we can't pinpoint exactly when. Maybe today, maybe not...

( posted 6:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 20th '09

ES is back on the 1000 level after bouncing on trading range lows.
While this is a very strong resistance combined to Fib PR2 on the 60mins chart, the chances of range breakout are substantial.
One should not put the "cart before the bull" though. We note that the weekly chart offers a breakout level around 1015.

Note on EURUSD: rangy with a possible pivot down if 1.426 resists. Retracement would however be relatively limited (higher time frame)

( posted 6:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 19th '09

ES almost made it to 991 yesterday, but is now looking at retracing lower to the bottom of the trading range (~980) and problably lower still later on. The 980 level is a good test right now. Markets could shed another 3% within a week in case of a breakout.

Again, we have no indication of a reversal on longer time frames just yet, so this is only normal profit taking, as well as a normal period of hesitation on a key level (1000).

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 18th '09

ES found support on the 977 stall level, but we also notice the ~32 point price segment evoked so many times on these reports so real support should be found lower despite its endeavour to bounce now.

As mentioned before, 1000 remains a key level to sustain the bull run we've had for over a month or on the contrary to retrace substantially. 1000 is also a Fib Pr2 now on the 60mins chart.

We'll watch 991 first (Fib PR1) as a resistance now and again we don't see prices going higher right now.

Having said that, there is still a substantial upward potential once this profit taking session is over (down to Fib PR1 on Daily chart). TF indeed seems set on a course to 600 on the weekly chart.


( posted 8 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 17th to 21st '09

On Firday ES received a "shock" from a systemic point of view and apparently absorbed it pretty well.

Being indeed on a strong resistance, a market is generally more susceptible to bad news, while not necessarily derailing the on-going trend. In this particular instance, ES was halted around 1016 (we note the same 16 point wide price segment we've seem for a while), to fall almost to the bottom of the trading range (~990), where it found support and rebounded late in the day.

The question is therefore: was it a false alert or on the contrary the first tangible sign of exhaustion of the bull market after a very strong month of July.
MTFS on the 60mins chart could indicate a return to the lower part of the trading range, so we'll check the behaviour on 1000 then on 990. However while we can see a pivot on higher time frames, there is still a lot of residual buying pressure. We shall review our scenario as the week progresses particularly if our trading range breaks out on the down side.
Traders who have been long for a few weeks should consider tightening stops below 980.

The scenario is the same for TF. We'll be watching closely the 555 and 548 levels. Again, not much concern just yet.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Market Update - Aug 14th '09

Quick end-of-week update.
This week has indeed been overall contained in the same trading range with the same bullish bias. Chance of a breakout on the up side are substantial.
TF is also exactly on the resistance level we anticipated, and could still aim higher.

We'll review our scenario on the weekly report, but are considering moving our targets higher (1047 for ES, 590 for TF).

( posted 8:30 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 10th to 14th '09

ES reached the 2nd Fib target level on Friday, still within the resistance area given on previous reports (1000-1020).

We still do not see the buying pressuring abating much, hence while the 1000 level is still quite valid, we may see the level being tested as support. If 1000 doesn't hold, then profit taking could pick up some momentum, even though one cannot see it at present.

TF gives us a potential higher target in the mid 590s and the previous 562 resistance level has now been clearly broken (new res level is 578). One could therefore extrapolate a strong resistance level in the area (just another jump to the next 16-point price segment).

We do notice a mix of more hesitation inducing higher volatility in this underlying bullish trend.

Some traders may want to secure profit by moving their stop just below Thursday's lows (i.e. around 990).


NB: There won't be daily updates this week.

Market Update - Aug 7th '09

We have a confirmation of the pause on the salient 1000 level, however no indication of any signification retracement either. ES came down to the Fib PR1 level (38%) and could actually shed a few more points to find support o the mid 980s. Again it doesn't mean that ES will not rise again in the medium term as residual buying pressure is still there.

A data issue pending correction by TradeStation prevents any analysis of TF at this time.

NB: there will be no daily update next week.

( posted 8:10 AM UK )