Market Update - Oct 1st '09

A bit of traveling again tomorrow so here is an early shorter report which i might update before the open.

One will notice that i was spot on again yesterday with pretty accurate targets... Erosion seems likely to continue for both ES and TF. It is difficult to say right now whether selling will pick up momentum or whether it will aim lower than current range lows (60mins chart). This is a clear "airhole" situation which can lead to temporary hesitation, congestion, and directionless volatility.

EURUSD: very marginal upward bias, and at the same time 1.464 turned to stronger resistance level... This price level can be tested again but EURUSD will likely then drift lower to recent lows.

( posted 10:07 PM UK )

Market Update - Sep 30th '09

ES is for the time being stuck on the key 1062 resistance level. It has since shed a few points but has not clearly retraced yet. We therefore cannot confirm the reversal point we've been waiting for.
We have a provisional Fib pattern with a 1st target on 1046 but no energy to support more than a possible continuation of the current erosion.
TF follows the same path with an immediate target on 604 then maybe 596. The same lack of entropy and MTFS patterns makes it relatively directionless.

EURUSD left key level on 1.464 to drop to 1.453 (MM+Fib) where it bounced. 1.464 remains crucial in the short term and congestion is to be expected until we get a clearer reversal point (at these time frames).

( posted 6:55 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 29th '09

The bounce was anticipated on the Fib level but definitely stronger than we would have thought, to aim straight back at 1062, key level, now Fib upward retracement level.
We'll therefore watch that price level closely today. We have been telling that the bullishness we've have for a number of weeks is bound to come to an end, even if it can still creep a little higher.
The same situation for TF could take it back to recent highs (check for 614 first) but we have to be careful here too. Buying pressure is still present but could evaporate leading to increasing hesitation and volatility.

EURUSD: watch same key level at 1.464

( posted 6:40 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Sep 28tht to Oct 2nd '09

Market reading went quite well last week. Let's hope we'll have another good week.

ES has sort of landed on Fib level where it could rebound softly. However selling pressure is now definitely there so we could aim lower again around 1030. The overall longer term trend is however still relatively bullish, so a continued period of hesitation is likely. We know that the weekly chart is pointing for a retracement to come but the exact trigger point isn't quite there yet on the daily chart.

TF shows a clearer picture as it has hit its target on 594. It is however still quite bearish. We'll therefore watch that 594 support level closely as it could trigger more selling and induce the retracement the 580s then maybe to around 555 in a couple of weeks. Again, TF has been leading lately, and could take ES down with it.

EURUSD: bearish right now.
The 1.464 is still test level which could be hit again as a resistance during the course of the day. On the downside, we'll check the Fib level around 1.454 but we have not indication of more than a minor retracement on the weekly chart. The trend is firmly up there despite being very overbought right now.

( posted 7:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 25th '09

We now have more clarity about ES going for a soft landing on 1040, or possibly eroding further to around 1030 (our usual 32 price segment from 1062). Again no change in our longer term bullish outlook.

TF has stalled on ... stall level of course, but could well hit 594. As mentioned yesterday, we even aim lower without affecting our long term target much.

EURUSD: We aim at 1.464 for support and possibly then bounce higher. We're in for a bumpy ride anyway...

( posted 8:45 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 24th '09

We now have evidence of the modest retracement we've been waiting for. Again, I realize the message has been possibly somewhat confusing but the longer term targets remain unchanged.

We also notice that TF is leading the retracement after hitting its target on 625. taking ES down with it (as anticipated). We now have to check a short term support on 609 which could trigger the full on retracement to the 580s, then 560s. Again, longer term players should worry.

EURUSD: some erosion yet one can't call it a fall. The US$ should remain weak over all. We'll check the 1.477 key level for now, which could indicate aiming for 1.465 later on.

( posted late at 9 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 23rd '09

ES certainly remains bullish. It passed the 1062 test level, so we'll check it stays above it and possibly tests it again as support. In any case, the course seems set to ~1100 (we'll fine tune our target later on).
TF is as so often in the same situation but must pass 620 and then the strong resistance 625 level.
Again we have to realize the VERY overbought configuration we have here, so i wish to reiterate recent warnings that a retracement is bound to happen in the next few days, even if moderate (could however then fall to the low 500s).

EURUSD: should stay high.
We anticipate a return to highs and even 1.486.
Like for indices despite an obvious forthcoming retracement the upward bias is there and we keep our longer term target unchanged.

( Posted 6:20 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 22nd '09

ES has now stalled on its 1062 resistance level, with hardly any sign of weakening though. It could creep higher but we do expect a reversal soon so long positions must be monitored closely, stops tightened and some profits taken.
TF is in the same situation and while a volatility spike could it to the 620s again, we prepare for a modest Fib retracement in the next week or so (Entropy is very high).

EURUSD: the 1.464 level held yesterday, so €/$ should remain range bound either directionless or with a slightly upward bias to a short term 1.477 resistance level.
As for indices, we anticipate some minor Fib retracement on longer time frames (daily/weekly) within a few weeks even though we keep our 1.50 to 1.51 target for now.

( posted 6:15 AM UK )

NB: tomorrow's report might be delayed

Weekly Report - Sep 21st to Sep 25th '09

While hesistant on 1062 which is a strong resistance on the 60mins chart, ES could push higher even to 1125 over the next couple of weeks. While residual momentum is still there, a retracement is clearly in the cards on the weekly chart but it is impossible to figure out when sellers will actually pull the trigger.
We'll therefore watch the behaviour on Monday on this 1062 level. Should sellers have a go, ES could shed 1.5% to 1050 but it should remain limited at first.

We however notice that TF is more prone to retrace and could take ES down with it. It currently suffers from the same short term hesitation with the same upward bias and the same need to retrace on the weekly chart.

EURUSD: could be range bound in the short term, but still bullish overall. We indeed saw 1.464 acting as a support now on the weekly chart. That level remains key to the continuation of the current rise. A moderate retracement is also necessary here even if it could take a while to exhaust the current buying pressure.

( Posted Sunday 7AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 18th '09

New contract and maybe more signs of hesitation around 1060. The bullish pressure however needs to first dissipate to eventually initiate some selling. Lower time frames will be necessary to pick a reversal point but one can already say that if prices stay below 1062, buyers will probably pull back and let retracement start. Should this happen today, we'll figure out a target on the weekly report.
TF does not provide us with additional information. While it hasn't hit its strong resistance level on 625, stall level (~618) could act the same way.

EURUSD: hesitant as well but could retrace in the short term to yesterday's lows or at least 1.468. Still very bullish overall on daily and weekly charts.


( posted 7 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 17th '09

Late, shorter report today...

All markets are sitting on strong resistance levels. With triple witching coming, we may see increased volatility but no sign of retracement whatosoever in the short term. Shall we see yet another breakout?
Retracement has to come, more visible on the weekly chart, so it may take at least a few days to materialize.

Traveling right now but will try and update this report by noon Eastern

( posted 10 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 16th '09

Interesting market action yesterday, with ES pushing higher as expected, and TF moving in concert, breaking 594 to now aim toward 610s. ES could stall on 1055 or maybe go hit its resistance on 1062.
Concerns on weaker underlying forces is more visible on the weekly chart, so, assuming no increased volatility on triple witching, this steady yet excessive bullishness could hold for a while.

EURUSD: The 1.464 level broke technically on intraday charts, but we are still in a resistance area for now. It is so bullish that once resistance has been tested for support, we could see it reaching 1.50 or maybe just above 1.51 over the next few weeks.

( posted 6 AM UK )