Thursday, October 18, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 18th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion but upward bias still valid (Daily).

Note: A variation to the AdStoK white line is plotted (test). It provide a slightly higher memory effect in the indicator.

60mins: Congestion with an upward bias.

The same trading range is expected. Congestion is expressed with relation to the high volatility environment we have had for a few weeks.
The market may try and test 2187 again. It has been the stall level after the strong bull run we had for a couple of months, and constitutes a test level.

Levels to watch: 2188 pivot level at this time frame, but lower time frames do provide MUCH higher significance level and trading opportunities.

Daily: Congestion - Upward bias is still technically there but NDX is very overbought, so lower time frames must be watched carefully.
No new information:
AdStoK and Entropy are now showing more signs of weakness. There is however substantial accumulated energy in Entropy that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could certainly have a pause with some congestion and profit taking. This high volatility environment can also obviously accelerate movements in either direction, but that would take a few days to materialize.
Note: the new AdStoK White Line variation is higher, hence down-plays the effect of the current profit taking event.

Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
Current congestion in lower time frames can slow down or stall the upward bias we still have.
Note that significance level on this time frame is falling, due to indicator divergence.