Thursday, October 25, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 25th '07



Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly up.

Volatility is very high, possibly confirming our earlier diagnostic that we may be close to a key level. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
Major swings yesterday to return to more or less the same pivot level (2188). The market is quite resilient, for many reasons (exchange rate, world economic growth, bond market, real estate etc). Yet this does not appear to be stable over the medium term.
It is too early to project Fib expansion patterns, but we would like to make some sense of the current wide range congestion. There is still an upward bias, so there should be again some excursion above 2188, but we'll have to watch lower time frames for guidance, where a resistance level at 2219 is given.

Daily: Up, hopefully at a slower pace.
NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or prior stall level around current highs). MTFS green line holding well, so even if a retracement is expected it is nowehere visible in our indicators right now.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame.