Friday, October 12, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 12th '07


Dominant TF: Weekly & Daily, lower time frames joining the party
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion, possibly mildly Up

60mins: a bit of roller-coaster.

As said for NDX and SPY, this little hiccup was expected a little later, but NDX's madness triggered some selling on stall level, bringing the whole market down.
RUT could test 828 for support first, and 843 is a new resistance which will be harder to break.
One must watch the coming trading range very closely as it could form an interesting pattern (head and shoulder? double top? no panic just yet...)
Note: The gradient of the AdStoK green line should also give us information on whether we're heading for a turnaround or a V shape pattern.

Daily: Congestion to mildly up.
AdStoK is very overbought and is now showing some weakness. The white line crossover will give us interesting information shortly. Entropy is lower but there is no reason to panic: the trend is still UP! Yesterday's down day did not even change the colour of the daily bar, which is still blue.
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
Support: 828 (likely), then 812 (unlikely in the short term).

Weekly: mildly up until...

It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.