Friday, October 26, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 26th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to mildly up if support is confirmed.

60mins: mildly up.
Lower time frames indicate some upward bias, and SPY could well reach Fib PR1 or even 153 (MM+ Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy could peak shortly. Significance level is very low.

Daily: Congestion to down. Check levels carefully.
Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 150. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly.For the time being, a strong base for support must be found to reassure the market. 150 is holding well overall for the time being, and low intraday time frames are in a cycle with some upward momentum indicating difficulties going higher. Check PR1 and pivot level on 60 mins chart to possibly release energy on the upside.

Weekly: mildly UP - Very low significance level.
Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion. The Swing indicator is very undecisive, so one may just be close to a key level.