Friday, November 30, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 30th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, but 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from UP-DN-DN)
Market direction: Recovery is yet to be confirmed.

2nd day recovery was mild but at least held up. Again a stronger base is needed to go higher but should it fail to retrace (2062?) a congestion at first may be good enough.
Lower time frames provide a better picture at the moment.


60mins: congestion to up, but some retracement is also possible.
MTFS and Entropy show a likely slow down, but in this high volatility environment NDX may have enough momentum to reach the 2125 pivot level first.

Daily: mildly up
Swing now also turned up, and MTFS is in better looking U-shape pattern. Such pattern's validity depends on the depth of the green line which is only mildly positive. This means the upward potential is relatively limited in the short term (2125?). It is only if/once 2125 is passed that NDX will likely return to the overall bullish trend and reach Fib targets, with 2250 being very significant (strong MM resistance as well).

Weekly: trading range
NDX is firmly back in its channel. However current movements are too fast for this time frame.