Saturday, November 17, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 19th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, and 10mins (not shown).
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market direction: DOWN, but support may be found soon.

The strong support level on 765.63 shown on short time frames yesterday has been confirmed now on the 60mins chart. We have a recovery potential until 774 in the short term after the afternoon run on Friday.

60mins: down til support is tested
Significance level is still low, but MTFS and Entropy do indicate RUT going somewhat lower. The 766 level should not hold, but in the meantime we should have some fighting on current level. Please note that failing to pass 781 would immediately mean bears testing the 750 level (Fib target and strong MM level).

Daily: mildly down.
Again we have to wait until the bearish MTFS finally meet. Entropy shows signs of bottoming out, and the MTFS white line has recovered a bit, yet the lines gradients indicate RUT going lower or at least remaining in a congestion area around current levels. No chance of a recovery for the time being.

AutoFib seems to indicate a possible Fib down pattern, yet 750 would have to be passed first. If so, a Fib target at 731 close to August lows could be reached.

Weekly: congestion to mildly down
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may have a broad [750-875] trading range. The 750 level has indeed turned from pivot to strong support level. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.