Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 28th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: DOWN, but support may be found in the low 730s

Same situation, so market commentary is quite similar today.
The mild bounce on 734.50 occured as expected.
Note: Check Cycles.

60mins: Down, but probable congestion on strong support level

MTFS and Entropy look a little bearish, and indicator continuation of this [730-750] trading range. Note that there is no recovery potential in the short term.

Daily: down...

MTFS looks bearish but the white line is stabilising indicating there could be a congestion at this low level. Same for Entropy. Increased volatility is possible but no chance of a recovery in the short term. Since MTFS has to complete its pattern, even a recovery would take a few days to exhaust the negative pressure, and could start from this 141 level, or lower around 734 or 730.

Weekly: caution but no panic
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may also remain in a broad [750-875] trading range with a lower bias (MTFS lines). 750 is not broken yet on this time frame. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.