Monday, December 17, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 17th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins as well as lower time frames
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-UP-DN)
Cycles: up - good fit
Market Direction: congestion with a lower bias

Like for NDX and SPY, it is likely that the next support level (750) will be key to forthcoming direction.

60 mins: Support level may have to be found lower
MTFS points lower and Entropy is stable, indicating continuation of price erosion. One should obviously pay attention at RUT's behaviour on 750, but like for other symbols, we're not in a situtation of a potential stronger rebound. RUT could therefore remain congested in the low 750s, or even try and test previous lows around 740.

daily: congestion.
MTFS and Entropy are again weakening further. We have the final confirmation of the failed recovery pattern mentioned about 2 weeks ago. IT is likely that these [740-750] levels will be be fought, and who knows whether bears or bulls will win. At the moment, only the cycle indicator points up, and we know it is not always a reliable predictor.

weekly: Directionless with a lower bias for the time being
Same situation: range [750-875]
Swing turned back down indicating RUT is not out of the woods just yet. Current congestion still hides a down bias.
The weekly bar surprisingly did not end up turning red. Again behaviour on 750 will be key.