Thursday, December 13, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 13th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames
Swing: DN-UP-UP (from DN-UP-UP)
Market Direction: No change in overall direction just yet, but lower bias in the short term

Similar comments as NDX.

60mins: Support must first be found (~147?)
Like the day before, and despite the recovery late in the day a support must be clearly found first.
MTFS lines confirm some moderate bearish outlook, but this may change upon even a mild recovery after support is confirmed.
Significance level is dropping fast indicating one should follow short time frames for entries and exits, and look for direction or absence thereof on this daily chart.

Daily: up technically but congestion to mild retracement at first.
MTFS white line is showing signs of weakness and Entropy is very high (Bin=5) and close to peaking.
We're therefore probably ahead of a congestion period.

Weekly: Congestion to moderate upper bias
MTFS is unreadable because of the low significance level, hence one should not pay too much attention to the lines down gradients.
For the time being, higher highs and higher lows are bullish signs, with due caution that moves in the last 6 months have been way too fast for this time frame.