Thursday, May 01, 2008

Market Outlook SPY for May 1st '08


Dominant TF: weekly and daily charts.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction (daily): congestion to upper bias
Position (60mins): flat (too volatile at this time frame)

SPY reacted negatively to the Fed announcement, and this may trigger the profit taking we anticipated lately. We will also keep an eye on 1.5625 on EURUSD.

NOTE: there will be no Market Snapshot tomorrow Friday 2nd

60mins: directionless, erosion is likely
We have the most erratic MTFS behaviour, so we'll stay away from this time frame (sig. level is low anyway). It is likely that SPY will go lower and test 137.50 again.

Daily: congestion with upper bias
Last post was correct but it seems we are now closer to some profit taking. We shall notice the high EntBin (=4) and a peaking white line on MTFS. Since the other lines are about mid way and pointing up still, a retracement should be limited. We will therefore check the 137.50 levels as well as other possible Fib levels ans channel lows.
As said last time, the way to 150 should be a little bumpy...

Weekly: aiming higher but retracement is likely at first
No change from last post:
MTFS lines are certainly pointing higher but the pattern itself is not a recovery pattern. In most cases, this kind of pattern announces a retracement at some point. Now that the PR1 Fib level seems passed, this may happen on the 50% Fib level or higher, and looking at previous support levels, testing 137.50 could set a strong base going forward.