Market Outlook NDX for Oct 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Probable Congestion. Watch 2188 key level, particularly on 15mins chart, for clues on forthcoming direction.

Note: A variation to the MTFS (or AdStoK) white line is plotted (test). It provides a slightly higher memory effect in the indicator.

60mins: Congestion with some remaining upward bias.
As said yesterday, we've had a continuation of the upward bias within a [2156-2188] trading range, and we now reached the high end of that range. The pattern is completed and it is more difficult to gauge what is coming next. Behaviour around this level will determine forthcoming direction, and lower time frames do provide higher significance level and trading opportunities.

Daily: Congestion - Upward bias is still technically there but NDX is very overbought, so lower time frames must be watched carefully.
No new information:
MTFS and Entropy are now showing more signs of weakness. There is however still substantial accumulated energy in Entropy that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could certainly have a pause with some congestion and profit taking (same [2150-2200]range).
One cannot discard a development of a new pattern which in this high volatility environment could take just a few days to materialize.
Note: the new MTFS (AdStoK) White Line variation is higher, hence down-plays the effect of the current profit taking event.

Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
Current congestion in lower time frames can slow down or stall the upward bias we still have.
Note that significance level on this time frame is falling, due to indicator divergence.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily (low intraday time frames too). Weekly influence declining.
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to down initially. Overall trend is still up, but support must be found first.

60mins: Congestion to down, but probably at a slow pace.
It is interesting to see that the 828 pivot level is now a new lower resistance level. AdStoK and Entropy point lower toward support levels around 820 first, but much stronger at 813. Significance level is high so we probably just have to follow the trend until AdStoK lines cross.
Lower time frames do indicate new testing of 828 at first though

Daily: Congestion to down at first. Overall direction unchanged yet but new support will have to be found.
No new information:
AdStoK is weaker and lines are crossing, indicating a definite slowdown. The red bar confirms also the diagnostic. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than pivot level.

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even possibly go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 18th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and 15mins)
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion. Upward bias still valid overall despite some profit taking.

60mins: Congestion to mildly down.
Erosion of SPY should continue, until support is truly found, first at 153.13, but possibly lower. Since the gradient is moderate, 153 is indeed more likely than 150 which seems much stronger though.
Note that lower time frames have high significance level and indicate an upward bias at first. Check 1562 as quite a strong resistance level on ES futures.

Daily: Profit taking until support is found.
AdStoK is so overbought with a white line declining, bars turning red, but Entropy is still holding fairly well. This is not indicative of any strong retracement in the near term, so profit taking should continue at a slow pace, possibly to 150 which would be tested for support and is a Fib PR1 level.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame, so the indicator could turn around again. For the time being, everything points upward. We can however see some divergence in AdStoK and a very low significance level at this time frame (divergence?), so this is at best only a background information at the moment, and one should certainly focus on lower time frames (15mins and daily).

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 18th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion but upward bias still valid (Daily).

Note: A variation to the AdStoK white line is plotted (test). It provide a slightly higher memory effect in the indicator.

60mins: Congestion with an upward bias.
The same trading range is expected. Congestion is expressed with relation to the high volatility environment we have had for a few weeks.
The market may try and test 2187 again. It has been the stall level after the strong bull run we had for a couple of months, and constitutes a test level.

Levels to watch: 2188 pivot level at this time frame, but lower time frames do provide MUCH higher significance level and trading opportunities.

Daily: Congestion - Upward bias is still technically there but NDX is very overbought, so lower time frames must be watched carefully.
No new information:
AdStoK and Entropy are now showing more signs of weakness. There is however substantial accumulated energy in Entropy that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could certainly have a pause with some congestion and profit taking. This high volatility environment can also obviously accelerate movements in either direction, but that would take a few days to materialize.
Note: the new AdStoK White Line variation is higher, hence down-plays the effect of the current profit taking event.

Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
Current congestion in lower time frames can slow down or stall the upward bias we still have.
Note that significance level on this time frame is falling, due to indicator divergence.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 17th '07

Dominant TF: Daily & Weekly
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion to down initially. Overall trend is still up, but support must be found first.

60mins: Congestion to down, but probably at a slow pace.
It is interesting to see that the 828 pivot level may turn soon into a resistance level. AdStoK and Entropy certainly point lower, so we should maybe look for a lower support level, 820 first, but much stronger at 813.

Daily: Congestion to down at first. Overall direction unchanged yet but new support will have to be found.
No new information:
AdStoK is weaker and lines are crossing, indicating a definite slowdown. The red bar confirms also the diagnostic. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than those levels unless some economic news shock the system of course.

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even possibly go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 17th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and 15mins)
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion. Upward bias still valid overall despite some profit taking.

60mins: Congestion to mildly down.
Erosion of SPY should continue, until support is truly found, first at 153.13, but possibly lower. Since the gradient is moderate, 153 is indeed more likely than 150 which seems much stronger though.

Daily: Profit taking until support is found.
AdStoK is so overbought with a white line declining, bars turning red, but Entropy is still holding fairly well. This is not indicative of any strong retracement in the near term, so profit taking should continue at a slow pace, possibly to 150 which would be tested for support and is a Fib PR1 level.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame, so the indicator could turn around again. For the time being, everything points upward. We can however see some divergence in AdStoK and a very low significance level at this time frame, so this is only background information at the moment, and one should focus on lower time frames (15mins and daily).

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 17th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion but upward bias still valid (Daily).

Note: A variation to the AdStoK white line is plotted (test). It provide a slightly higher memory effect in the indicator.

60mins: Congestion with a down bias.
No new information yesterday. The same trading range is expected.

Levels to watch: around 2120 (Fib at 2117 and MM at 2125). 2156 is pivot in lower time frames.


Daily: Congestion - Upward bias is still technically there but NDX is very overbought, so lower time frames must be watched carefully.
No new information:
AdStoK and Entropy are now showing some early signs of weakness, the bar has turned red and significance level is still the highest of all 3 on this chart.
There is however so much accumulated energy (in Entropy) that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could certainly have a pause with some congestion and profit taking. This high volatility environment can also obviously accelerate movements in either direction, but that would take a few days to materialize.
Note: the new AdStoK White Line variation is higher, hence down-plays the effect of the current profit taking event.

Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
Current congestion in lower time frames can slow down or stall the upward bias we still have.
Note that significance level on this time frame is falling, due to indicator divergence.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 16th '07

Dominant TF: Daily & Weekly
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion, possibly mildly Up after support level is found.

60mins: Down, or a bit of roller-coaster at best.
We undoubtedly saw it coming from a distance and the situation is about the same as for SPY, except maybe that we are on stronger support or pivot levels. AdStoK and Entropy certainly point lower, so we should maybe look for a lower support level.

Daily: Congestion to down at first. Overall direction unchanged yet but new support will have to be found.
AdStoK is weaker and lines are crossing, indicating a definite slowdown. The red bar confirms also the diagnostic. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than those levels... unless some economic news shock the system of course.

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even possibly go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 16th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and 15mins)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion. Upward bias still valid overall despite some profit taking.

60mins: Congestion to mildly down.
Our word of warning proved to be correct. As for NDX, we clearly had a classic pattern forming. Now, what's next?
The late recovery cames mostly from day traders squaring off positions on day close, but SPX should go lower. Watch 153.4 (Fib) or even 153.1 (MM) in the near term, as it is likely that AdStoK lines will now go lower to cross in oversold territory.


Daily: Profit taking, but not change in overall direction yet.
AdStoK is so overbought with a white line declining, but Entropy is still holding fairly well. This is not indicative of any strong retracement in the near term.
We however now have a red bar, so profit taking could continue at a slow pace, possibly to 150 which would be tested for support and is a Fib PR1 level.
It is certainly too early right now, but one should keep it in mind.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is also looking better and the trend should remain mildly up for the time being as AdStoK lines are close to crossing with a strong up gradient.
We can however see some divergence in AdStoK and a low significance level at this time frame, so this is only background information at the moment, and one should focus on lower time frames (15mins and daily).

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 16th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion - Up bias still valid.

60mins: 2156 is pivot level. NDX should go slightly lower.
Couldn't have been more right yesterday. We were in presence of a classic pattern, which turned into a textbook Fib expansion to 2143. As the pattern is now complete, we only have a few clues about what is coming next. A negative bias is still in the market, but energy is not high enough to carry NDX much lower right now.
Levels to watch: around 2120 (Fib at 2117 and MM at 2125). 2156 is pivot in lower time frames, so one may also see some seemingly congestion at this time frame while lower time frames test this level up or down.
The 15mins chart is the most significant right now.


Daily: Up until...
AdStoK and Entropy are now showing some early signs of weakness and significance level is still the highest of all 3 on this chart.
There is however so much accumulated energy (in Entropy) that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could certainly have a pause with some congestion and profit taking. This high volatility environment can also obviously accelerate movements in either direction, but that would take a few days to materialize.
For the time being, i would recommend keeping an eye on the formation of a clearer pattern (H&S, DT, or breakout) in intraday time frames.


Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines have now crossed over so NDX may be a little ahead of itself, but significance level is so low at this time frame (divergence) that we should not jump to conclusions.
A crossover is very often a decision point, but we shall draw more information from lower time frames for now.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily & Weekly
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion, possibly mildly Up

60mins: a bit of roller-coaster... or congestion with price erosion.
We here have the same indecision as for SPY, however with a lower entropy.
The 843 resistance level may prove to hard to break, which would trigger a new test of recent lows (831). One may just as well stay in a trading range [836-843].

The same caution expressed last Friday still applies going forward: One must watch the coming trading range very closely as it could form an interesting pattern (head and shoulder? double top?). Too early to say, so reading too much between the (AdStoK) lines could lead to unfounded speculation.

Daily: Congestion to mildly up.
AdStoK is very overbought and is now showing some weakness. The white line crossover will give us interesting information shortly. Entropy is lower and the dialy bar has turned yellow.
There is no reason to panic just yet, but the slowdown should soon be confirmed.
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
Support: 828 (likely), then 812 (unlikely in the short term).

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion. Upward bias still valid.

60mins: Possible congestion with upward bias. 156.25 is a pivot level to watch in the near term.
This AdStoK pattern is not the easiest to read, as we have really no energy left right now (non existent Entropy), so it may require a bit of a 'shock' to move either way. A trading range [154.60-158-50] is likely for the time being.

Daily: mildly up.
AdStoK is so overbought with a white line declining, but Entropy is still holding quite well. This is not indicative of any strong retracement in the near term.
We could however have some increased volatility in the next few days, and a direction then emerging more clearly. Until then the upward bias is still valid.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should remain mildly up for the time being as AdStoK lines are now crossing with a strong up gradient.