Thursday, November 22, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 23rd '07



Dominant TF: Daily, and 10mins (not shown).
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: DOWN, but support may be found in the low 730s

60mins: Down, but probable congestion on strong support level

MTFS and Entropy look bearish, with congestion potential around the [730-750] trading range now that 750 is 'history'. RUT will try and stop its fall on 734.5, then 730 (would take more than a day though)

Daily: down...
Bearish MTFS lines have quite negative gradients indicating RUT going lower, thus pushing support level also lower (730?). Definitely no chance of a recovery in the short term. The next Fib level is around 731 (close to August lows), but one should not panic just yet... at least not until 730 breaks as well... We have to wait for the MTFS pattern to complete to get a better picture.

Weekly: caution but no panic
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may also remain in a broad [750-875] trading range with a lower bias (MTFS lines). The 750 level has indeed turned from pivot to strong support level. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.