Thursday, November 22, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 23rd '07



Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily
Swings: DN-DN-UP (from DN-DN-DN, weekly swing is hesitant)
Market direction: down

60mins: Down, but possible congestion

Entropy and MTFS both still point down but the MTFS white line holding above shows congestion potential. MTFS lines will now probably meet lower. No real recovery potential in the short term.

Daily: Down, but check for support level.

MTFS and Entropy do not look good and at this stage it is likely that the fall will continue until MTFS lines meet. SPY could eventually fall further to 141 (Fib) or even 137.50 (MM). However the current fall in Entropy is not too alarming (see LEntBin), so congestion may happen on this support level.

AutoFib already gives some potential recovery levels (L1 to L5) if current swing pivot holds (this is however too early).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - very low significance level.

This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias.
Caution: One shall note that 143.75 has broken, Swing indicator is hesitant at this level indicating we are close to a key level. One should also check for a possible channel breakout.