Market Outlook RUT for Oct 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, very strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

60mins: congestion to mildly up. pivot level at 812. Low significance level.
Lower time frames indicate still some slight upward bias to 812, 820, and possibly 828(stronger MM + Fib), but current pivot level (812) is still very much valid. MTFS is a little hesitant and Entropy is fading fast.

Daily: Congestion to down.
Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias. Support on Fib and MM levels (cf chart) should hold as long as Entropy does not fall...

Weekly: mildly UP
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: UP-DN-UP

Market direction: congestion to mildly up if support is confirmed.

60mins: mildly up.

Lower time frames indicate some upward bias, and SPY could well reach Fib PR1 or even 153 (MM+ Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy could peak shortly. Significance level is very low.

Daily: Congestion to down. Check levels carefully.

Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 150. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly.For the time being, a strong base for support must be found to reassure the market. 150 is holding well overall for the time being, and low intraday time frames are in a cycle with some upward momentum indicating difficulties going higher. Check PR1 and pivot level on 60 mins chart to possibly release energy on the upside.

Weekly: mildly UP - Very low significance level.

Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion. The Swing indicator is very undecisive, so one may just be close to a key level.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: congestion.

Volatility is very high, possibly confirming our earlier diagnostic that we may be close to a key level. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy. We have to note that the swing indicator has turned down for both dominant time frames.

60mins: congestion.

The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. The 10mins chart show vergy good looking cycles. The up potential is however limited.It is too early to project Fib expansion patterns, but we would like to make some sense of the current congestion. The trading range is a little narrower, between 2156 and 2188.

Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.

NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs). MTFS green line holding well, so even if a strong retracement is expected it is nowehere visible in our indicators right now.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also weekly to an extent)

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

60mins: congestion to mildly up. pivot level at 812.

Lower time frames indicate still some slight upward bias to 820, and RUT could also reach 828(stronger MM + Fib), but current pivot level (812) is still very much valid. MTFS is a little hesitant and Entropy is fading fast.

Daily: Congestion to down.

Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias.

Weekly: mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion

60mins: mildly up.
Lower time frames indicate some slight upward bias, and SPY could well reach Fib PR1 or even 153 (MM+ Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy could peak shortly. Significance level is lower
Daily: Congestion to down.
Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 150. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly.
For the time being, lows are lower, and a strong base for support must be found to reassure the market. 150 is holding overall for the time being, but this high volatility environment can cause this level to be broken at least momentarily.
Weekly: mildly UP - Very low significance level.
Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion. The Swing indicator is very undecisive, so one may just be close to a key level.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly up.

Volatility is very high, possibly confirming our earlier diagnostic that we may be close to a key level. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
Major swings yesterday to return to more or less the same pivot level (2188). The market is quite resilient, for many reasons (exchange rate, world economic growth, bond market, real estate etc). Yet this does not appear to be stable over the medium term.
It is too early to project Fib expansion patterns, but we would like to make some sense of the current wide range congestion. There is still an upward bias, so there should be again some excursion above 2188, but we'll have to watch lower time frames for guidance, where a resistance level at 2219 is given.

Daily: Up, hopefully at a slower pace.
NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or prior stall level around current highs). MTFS green line holding well, so even if a retracement is expected it is nowehere visible in our indicators right now.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 24th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also weekly to an extent)

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

60mins: mildly up.

Lower time frames indicate still some slight upward bias to 820, but RUT could also reach 828(stronger MM + Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy has peaked already. Significance level is now much lower.

Daily: Congestion to down.

Despite yesterday's up day, and contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 812. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly. In such case, one may see a target more clearly (781?? or 862??).

Weekly: mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 24th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: congestion.

60mins: mildly up.
Lower time frames indicate some slight upward bias, and SPY could well reach Fib PR1 or even 153 (MM+ Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy could peak shortly. Significance level is lower.

Daily: Congestion to down.
Despite yesterday's up day, and contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 150. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly.

Weekly: mildly UP - Very low significance level.
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion. The Swing indicator is trying to turn down, so one may just be close to a key level.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 24th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: mildly up.

60mins: up.

The method cannot detect sudden shocks to the system, but can adapt to them and evaluate subsequent directions and levels. In this case, after an 'exuberant' open, NDX broke pivot level and went up to 2188, but to our surprise, that level also broke fairly easily. MTFS and Entropy are bullish, so the next resistance level may just be 2250. We'll have to watch for the 'stall' level if prices move to fast (~2134).No visible Fib pattern to provide any other scenario at the moment.

Daily: Up, hopefully at a slower pace.

Amazing bounce on 2125. NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or prior stall level).

Weekly: mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run. We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 23rd '07

Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily (15mins time frames too).

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: congestion to down initially.

Detailed chart interpretation: Strong correlation with SPY therefore market interpretation is also very similar hence no need to virtually copy/paste whole commentary (see post below: http://marketsnapshot.blogspot.com/2007/10/market-outlook-spy-for-oct-23rd-07.html )

Support level has been found around 794 for now, but 781 is probably stronger.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 23rd '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion to Down. Support should be found soon.

60mins: Congestion to down.
There is no indication that yesterday's recovery will take SPY much higher in the short term. A congestion is likely.MTFS had an early crossover which is generally not indicative of a strong recovery, but the lines gradients are now looking better. We shall however watch how negative entropy is dissipating over the next few bars.

Daily: Profit taking until support is found (150 or lower...)
The 150 support level proved strong enough to stop the fall, but MTFS looks bearish, and bars are also decidedly red. The correction is maybe not over yet, and we have to possibly watch lower Fib retracement levels.

Weekly: Congestion, but caution: significance level is ridiculously low.
For the time being, indicators still point very slightly upward, but the red bar is more reactive and negates any remaining positive momentum in the short term. We can see some divergence in AdStoK and a very low significance level at this time frame (divergence?), so this is at best only a background information at the moment, and one should certainly focus on lower time frames (60mins and daily).

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 23rd '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: Congestion to mildly up.

60mins: Congestion. Mild updward bias at first.

Good recovery after hitting the 2125 support level very strongly. The level held and prices bounced to pivot level (MM + Fib). MTFS is undecisive, and Entropy is recovery, indicating an upward bias, however possibly bumping on pivot level.It is therefore not easy to see price behaviour going forward, and lower time frames do not provide more information at present. Bar colours have not even turned blue during this recovery.

Daily: Congestion to down.

A red bar, yet a very bullish bar, other indicators still eroding: we are in presence of indetermination, so we hae to be very careful and watch salient levels to gauge for future direction, particularly on the 60 mins chart. If the 2088 level fails to be broken, bulls may just give up...

Weekly: Congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Current congestion in lower time frames can slow down or stall the upward bias we still have.Note that significance level on this time frame is falling, due to indicator divergence.