Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: Congestion to Up.
60mins: Congestion.
Pattern is unclear but parallel and slightly downward MTFS lines tend to indicate congestion, and Entropy has also peaked.
Daily: congestion to mildly up
This early MTFS crossover is very seldom conducive to a definite change in direction. A congestion is likely, and RUT should try and find a stronger base for support.
As for other symbols, RUT seem to show evidence of a cycle turning point, so any retracement should be limited (757, and 750 in the worst scenario)
Weekly: return to the trading range
We're now back in our [750-875] range, and still pretty much directionless. It will be interesting to see whether RUT closes the week over the lower end of the channel (~763). It seems that the 'double top' scenario is now a little more remote, but we should wait for the bar to change colour first.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Market Outlook RUT for Nov 30th '07
Market Outlook SPY for Nov 30th '07
Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: up, but a pause is likely.
Note: swing gradient are opposite on daily and weekly charts, and both have too steep a gradient to be stable.
Daily chart has a much higher significance though so overall upward bias is likely.
60mins: congestion to up
Recovery stalled on PR1 (38.2% Fib upward retracement), and there will be hesitation between running for 150 and pausing a bit. MTFS and Entropy show signs of weakening albeit without serious downward pressure. A [147-150] trading range is likely.
Daily: congestion to up
Again, PR1 at 147.10 marked a pause in current recovery. MTFS is not showing the easiest pattern as an early crossover (above oversold territory) generally occurs on negative gradient indicating a forthcoming double bottom or cup and handle. The positive gradient this time may mean little or no retracement down to a stronger base for rebound.
SPY will try and reach Fib expansion levels starting with 148.4, but MTFS indecision may mean some congestion ahead.
Weekly: congestion - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range slightly upward biased (higher highs and higher lows).
Market Outlook NDX for Nov 30th '07
Dominant TF: 60mins, but 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from UP-DN-DN)
Market direction: Recovery is yet to be confirmed.
2nd day recovery was mild but at least held up. Again a stronger base is needed to go higher but should it fail to retrace (2062?) a congestion at first may be good enough.
Lower time frames provide a better picture at the moment.
60mins: congestion to up, but some retracement is also possible.
MTFS and Entropy show a likely slow down, but in this high volatility environment NDX may have enough momentum to reach the 2125 pivot level first.
Daily: mildly up
Swing now also turned up, and MTFS is in better looking U-shape pattern. Such pattern's validity depends on the depth of the green line which is only mildly positive. This means the upward potential is relatively limited in the short term (2125?). It is only if/once 2125 is passed that NDX will likely return to the overall bullish trend and reach Fib targets, with 2250 being very significant (strong MM resistance as well).
Weekly: trading range
NDX is firmly back in its channel. However current movements are too fast for this time frame.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Market Outlook RUT for Nov 29th '07
Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: UP, but recovery must be confirmed.
See yesterday's post ("Check Cycles") as well as NDX and SPY commentaries today.
60mins: Up, but recovery must be confirmed.
Admittedly surprised by yesterday's move.
MTFS and Entropy look better but the MTFS green line is lagging behind while the white line reaches overbought territory very quickly. This indicates a likely pause (we even have a possible AutoFib pattern pointing south).
The 150 level could even be tested again for support.
Daily: congestion to mildly up
We expected a congestion and we got that sudden burst upward. The MTFS crossover on a negative gradient does not point for RUT going much higher for now, and while the fall looks stopped, a stronger base will need to be found to go higher (150?).
As for other instruments, cycles seem to show a turning point, however slightly delayed compared to NDX. Looking at MTFS, it is quite possible that such turnaround will occur after a stronger support is found within a few bars.
Weekly: return to the trading range
It is interesting to see RUT possibly closing the week over the lower end of the channel. For the time being, let's push the 'double top' scenario a little further (we might dump it in a few weeks). We're therefore now back in our [750-875] range, and pretty much directionless there.
Again, RUT has always bounced on PR2 in the last 2 years, and it may just behave the same this time again.
Market Outlook SPY for Nov 29th '07
Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: up, but a pause is likely.
See notes on NDX post, in particular about cycles. SPY cycle seems a little lagged compared to NDX's
60mins: up, but recovery must be confirmed
Admittedly surprised by the strength of this recovery, even if we knew a breakout was possible. MTFS and Entropy do point higher but caution must be exercised. A pause is quite possible on the way to 150.
Daily: up, but recovery must be confirmed
Despite yesterday's "burst" MTFS and Entropy still do not look great. At this stage we can assume the price erosion has stopped but it is likely that the recovery will need a stronger base. Let's wait until MTFS lines meet. When confirmed, we'll watch for the AutoFib targets and obviously the 50% retracement and MM level at 150.
Weekly: congestion - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias. The lower end of the range could be tested again.
Market Outlook NDX for Nov 29th '07
Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from UP-DN-DN)
Market direction: Recovery is yet to be confirmed.
You may have noticed over the last few days that i advised
about checking lower times frames, as something was boiling under the hood. Secondly, I mentioned yesterday that it would be worth taking a look at cycles. Of course, I have warned again that cycles must be analysed with a lot of caution, yet it seems to have proved right this time.
60mins: up, but check resistance level around 2095 then 2125
The 2030 pivot level disappeared at the open, and the 2060 didnt show much resistance either. Fractal levels are still about 31 points apart, and NDX gathered enough momentum to get the next resistance level (more significant on lower time frames). Current level can hower pause the recovery.
Indeed MTFS and Entropy are strong but 'half-way' through only. Recovery must therefore be confirmed. Again, it is recommended to follow the 15mins chart (Sig Level = 92%).
Daily: mildly up
I would suggest reading yesterday's commentary again.
A bounce was announced, but due caution was also expressed as such recovery could have started from a lower base. Having said that, cycles, AutoFib, and engaging looking at lower time frames should have made possible to be there on time.
Where do we go from here? The MTFS pattern is not bullish yet so it is essential to wait to see the recovery confirmed over the next few days. Such recovery after such an incredible day (+3%) will obviously slow down. It is likely that if/once 2125 is passed, NDX will likely return to the overall bullish trend and reach Fib targets.
Weekly: congestion to mildly up - low significance level.
Bounce on the lower end of the channel and 2000 support level should help NDX go a little higher.
This is however not a very significant time frame.
Reminder on cycles:
1) check error level is close to Lag128's optimal error level
(a visual check can do no harm either)
2) check shape of blue curve (quarter cycle phase advance) for a top/bottom
3) count bars (quarter cycle) to gauge potential forthcoming turnaround on cycle (magenta curve)
4) ALWAYS CHECK FOR SUPPORTING INFORMATION (MAINLY MM AND FIB)
NOTE: This genetic algorithm is VERY processing intensive so should only be applied to EOD charts
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Market Outlook RUT for Nov 28th '07
Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: DOWN, but support may be found in the low 730s
Same situation, so market commentary is quite similar today.
The mild bounce on 734.50 occured as expected.
Note: Check Cycles.
60mins: Down, but probable congestion on strong support level
MTFS and Entropy look a little bearish, and indicator continuation of this [730-750] trading range. Note that there is no recovery potential in the short term.
Daily: down...
MTFS looks bearish but the white line is stabilising indicating there could be a congestion at this low level. Same for Entropy. Increased volatility is possible but no chance of a recovery in the short term. Since MTFS has to complete its pattern, even a recovery would take a few days to exhaust the negative pressure, and could start from this 141 level, or lower around 734 or 730.
Weekly: caution but no panic
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may also remain in a broad [750-875] trading range with a lower bias (MTFS lines). 750 is not broken yet on this time frame. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.
Market Outlook SPY for Nov 28th '07
Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: mildly down - possible congestion on current levels
Unlike NDX, the daily time frame gives us a very good picture.
60mins: congestion on current levels
Entropy and MTFS both still point toward continuation of price erosion with a possible congestion (140.6 is a support level on lower time frames). No real recovery potential in the short term until we get a clearer picture from MTFS and Entropy.
Daily: Congestion to mildly down.
MTFS and Entropy do not look too good and at this stage it is likely that the fall or at least price erosion will continue until MTFS lines meet. The White Line is stabilising so congestion is a likely scenario, indicating that support levels at 141 could hold (otherwise 137.50). Again let's first wait for a MTFS crossover.
While it is certainly too early, AutoFib has detected a recovery pattern. The last pivot (no4) should however first stabilise to consider it seriously.
Weekly: congestion to down - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias. The lower end of the range could be tested again.
Market Outlook NDX for Nov 28th '07
Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-UP)
Market direction: Congestion. Behaviour around 2000 remains key.
Again, dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames, so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. Reading the 15 mins chart is very simple with a significance level of 91% and looks congested.
60mins: congestion - low significance level due to congestion
We're back on a 2000 support level, and congestion continues. 2030 is now a pivot level on lower time frames and serves as a resistance for the time being. No direction can be drawn from this time frame, but this is a great environment for scalping.
Daily: congestion to down
MTFS and Entropy still look a little bearish but the 2000 cannot be regarded as broken just yet. 2000 is still key level, and a bounce is possible within the next few days. Since the overall mood is bearish such rebound can very much take place a little lower for instance at PR2 (1970). We shall obviously remain careful until the MTFS pattern is completed. One cannot discard a recovery at as Entropy show signs of bottoming out (Bin=-3). The AutoFib gives a potential recovery to levels we have seen recently (COP ~ 2250).
Note: the lower significance level indicates that MTFS will adapt a little late, so recovery (if any) should detected on a 15mins chart.
Weekly: congestion to mildly down - low significance level.
The profit taking we've seen can stop here on the lower channel boundary reinforced by a strong support level. We cannot however ignore a potential breakout to 1935 PR1 retracement level.
Note: Swing uses a search depth parameter of 1 (refined search). Standard search returns UP. This indicates possible indecision on future direction.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Market Outlook RUT for Nov 27th '07
Daily: down...
Market Outlook SPY for Nov 27th '07
Unlike NDX, the daily time frame gives us a very good picture.
60mins: Down, but possible congestion on current levels
Weekly: congestion to down - very low significance level.
Market Outlook NDX for Nov 27th '07
Again, dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames, so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. Reading the 15 mins chart is very simple with a significance level of 91% and point decidedly south.
60mins: congestion to down - low significance level due to congestion
Daily: congestion to down
Weekly: congestion to mildly down - low significance level.
